Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.013684 0.015497 0.017464 0.019756 0.022356 0.025214 0.028596
2025-06-29 0.010588 0.013028 0.015903 0.019544 0.024038 0.029411 0.036333
2025-07-06 0.008653 0.011262 0.014516 0.018876 0.024577 0.031796 0.041656
2025-07-13 0.007809 0.010645 0.014349 0.019548 0.026681 0.036150 0.049728
2025-07-20 0.007100 0.010074 0.014116 0.020024 0.028472 0.040161 0.057644
2025-07-27 0.006573 0.009665 0.014021 0.020626 0.030426 0.044499 0.066366
2025-08-03 0.005927 0.009003 0.013478 0.020490 0.031252 0.047237 0.072952
2025-08-10 0.005415 0.008474 0.013062 0.020473 0.032210 0.050198 0.080084
2025-08-17 0.004894 0.007876 0.012474 0.020113 0.032572 0.052231 0.085891
2025-08-24 0.004575 0.007560 0.012285 0.020352 0.033878 0.055824 0.094496
2025-08-31 0.004217 0.007142 0.011892 0.020208 0.034523 0.058368 0.101543
2025-09-07 0.004017 0.006969 0.011878 0.020686 0.036238 0.062811 0.112204
2025-09-14 0.003614 0.006418 0.011192 0.019968 0.035851 0.063674 0.116744
2025-09-21 0.003329 0.006049 0.010788 0.019707 0.036248 0.065942 0.124038
2025-09-28 0.003012 0.005593 0.010190 0.019035 0.035825 0.066675 0.128510
2025-10-05 0.002922 0.005545 0.010319 0.019714 0.037963 0.072287 0.142771
2025-10-12 0.002811 0.005446 0.010344 0.020194 0.039758 0.077387 0.156489
2025-10-19 0.002723 0.005385 0.010434 0.020800 0.041843 0.083213 0.172182
2025-10-26 0.002553 0.005146 0.010160 0.020663 0.042427 0.086112 0.182120
2025-11-02 0.002411 0.004951 0.009957 0.020646 0.043248 0.089545 0.193473
2025-11-09 0.002243 0.004690 0.009600 0.020283 0.043311 0.091415 0.201624
2025-11-16 0.002150 0.004577 0.009535 0.020524 0.044673 0.096111 0.216389
2025-11-23 0.002027 0.004389 0.009300 0.020379 0.045183 0.099017 0.227396